23 April 2013

Non-professional #four23dc election predictions

I'm not here to give you a prediction regarding the results of today's election. We'll find that out very soon. What I do want to put out there are some things that I would wager would be talked about given a few different scenarios. Here they are, in no particular order, and remember, I'm no professional prognosticator!

If Anita Bonds wins:

- She has the inside track for reelection in just under a year. Yes, that's right. The primary for next year's general election is April Fool's Day (April 1), and the power of incumbency will aid her greatly in that Democratic primary. Voters will get to vote for two candidates in the November 2014 election, and whomever has the (D) next to their name is a shoo-in for one of those seats.

- Expect talk about how the "newcomers/gentrifiers/progressives/white residents" still aren't organized enough to elect someone citywide (even though that loosely-defined demographic just did that with Grosso's election last fall).

If Patrick Mara wins:

- Expect some right-leaning blog or Washington Post pundit (George Will? Charles Krauthammer?) to write about how Mara's victory signals that "even a jurisdiction with an African-American majority is sick and tired of the librul Demoncrats and Barry Obummer." Don't expect them to discuss the fact that many of the people voting for Mara are HUGE Obama supporters and that the party affiliation of Council candidates really has little to nothing to do with national politics.

- If David Catania chooses to run for attorney general, mayor, or simply retire in 2014, Mara's incumbency would give him a pretty solid shot at reelection. As mentioned above, there will be two spots on the November 2014 ballot for at-large councilmember, and whoever wins the Democratic primary on April 1 has the inside track at one of those spaces. Since there would be no incumbent Democrat at that point, I'd expect an epic 15-way scrum for the Democratic primary.

- If David Catania chooses to run for reelection as councilmember, it would set up an interesting race between him and Mara for the likely non-Democratic seat in November 2014.

- Expect talk about how it looks possible for the city to elect a white mayor in 2014.

- Expect wailing, gnashing of teeth, rending of garments and the like from those who supported Bonds.

If Elissa Silverman wins:

- Elissa would have the inside track for reelection in 2014. (Seeing a pattern here? Elected incumbency is a powerful thing in DC.) Expect an attempt from the groups she didn't strongly court (big business, etc.) to draft a strong challenge to her in the coming year, though.

If Frumin, Redd, or Zukerberg win:

- This won't happen. One does not have a broad-enough base, another represents a party with no infrastructure, and the third is a non-serious one-trick pony.

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