Non-professional #four23dc election predictions

I'm not here to give you a prediction regarding the results of today's election. We'll find that out very soon. What I do want to put out there are some things that I would wager would be talked about given a few different scenarios. Here they are, in no particular order, and remember, I'm no professional prognosticator!

If Anita Bonds wins:

- She has the inside track for reelection in just under a year. Yes, that's right. The primary for next year's general election is April Fool's Day (April 1), and the power of incumbency will aid her greatly in that Democratic primary. Voters will get to vote for two candidates in the November 2014 election, and whomever has the (D) next to their name is a shoo-in for one of those seats.

- Expect talk about how the "newcomers/gentrifiers/progressives/white residents" still aren't organized enough to elect someone citywide (even though that loosely-defined demographic just did that with Grosso's election last fall).

If Patrick Mara wins:

- Expect some right-leaning blog or Washington Post pundit (George Will? Charles Krauthammer?) to write about how Mara's victory signals that "even a jurisdiction with an African-American majority is sick and tired of the librul Demoncrats and Barry Obummer." Don't expect them to discuss the fact that many of the people voting for Mara are HUGE Obama supporters and that the party affiliation of Council candidates really has little to nothing to do with national politics.

- If David Catania chooses to run for attorney general, mayor, or simply retire in 2014, Mara's incumbency would give him a pretty solid shot at reelection. As mentioned above, there will be two spots on the November 2014 ballot for at-large councilmember, and whoever wins the Democratic primary on April 1 has the inside track at one of those spaces. Since there would be no incumbent Democrat at that point, I'd expect an epic 15-way scrum for the Democratic primary.

- If David Catania chooses to run for reelection as councilmember, it would set up an interesting race between him and Mara for the likely non-Democratic seat in November 2014.

- Expect talk about how it looks possible for the city to elect a white mayor in 2014.

- Expect wailing, gnashing of teeth, rending of garments and the like from those who supported Bonds.

If Elissa Silverman wins:

- Elissa would have the inside track for reelection in 2014. (Seeing a pattern here? Elected incumbency is a powerful thing in DC.) Expect an attempt from the groups she didn't strongly court (big business, etc.) to draft a strong challenge to her in the coming year, though.

If Frumin, Redd, or Zukerberg win:

- This won't happen. One does not have a broad-enough base, another represents a party with no infrastructure, and the third is a non-serious one-trick pony.

First step for the Post Metro section - report local election results

This weekend, Patrick B. Pexton, the Washington Post's ombudsman, wrote an article lamenting his paper's coverage of local news [The Post forgets to be local]. In it, he states that the complaint he hears most is that "The paper is so thin" and that the Metro section could use some more heft.

Map of Ward 5 from ancdc.us

I recommend the following as a start: actually report the election results for the representatives most closely tied to the people in the city that the paper calls its home: the Advisory Neighborhood Commissioners.

To the best of my knowledge, these results have not been published by a single print medium in DC (to this point). If you want them, you need to go to the Board of Election's results page. This is fantastic if you have internet access, but much of the city's population does not, and gets its news from the daily paper and evening television news, just like we all did two decades ago. Elderly neighbors and people who don't obsessively check local blogs need a place to find this information that's accessible to them.

This wouldn't need to be a flashy story, and it certainly wouldn't need a novel infographic. Just a simple map for each ward, like the one above, along with a list of each candidate and the results.

Simple. Informative. Necessary (information is the lifeblood of a functioning democracy). And the best part: NO ONE ELSE HAS DONE IT. The Post can take the lead here.

To be certain, it would be a week late, so perhaps it doesn't qualify as news anymore, but it would be a service to residents whom the Washington Post and its ombudsman yearn to serve. The new commissioners don't take office until after the first of the year, so this would still give residents time to familiarize themselves with their new representatives.

What do you say, Mr. Pexton? See what you can do about getting this feature in the paper. It might add two pages to a thin Metro section.

The (potential) coming electoral mess at the JAWB

The John A. Wilson Building, by WallyG

UPDATE: Thanks to input from a few friends, there are some additions made below in italics.

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The ongoing turmoil at the Wilson Building doesn't appear to be ending anytime soon. Voters in the District can likely expect more special elections in the coming year as the fallout from the investigations into the campaigns and other doings of Council Chairman Kwame Brown and Mayor Vince Gray continue to be revealed.

Speculation is rampant about how things would play out should one or both be removed from their current positions. I wanted to put together a really rough outline of what some think could happen soon. I'm certain this isn't 100% accurate, so please let me know in the comments if you can provide a correction.

• In the simplest scenario, Kwame Brown steps down or is removed from office.
• Mary Cheh becomes the temporary chairperson, due to her current position as Chair Pro Tempore. She calls a meeting to select an interim chairperson, who, by law, must come from the list of at-large members of the council. The chairperson is not allowed to have any other employment, and the story is that Michael Brown and David Catania would not want to resign from their non-council jobs, leaving Phil Mendelson and Vince Orange to compete for the chair's seat. (Since the interim chairperson would not actually be an elected chairperson, it's not clear whether they would have to give up outside employment).
• The at-large seat vacated by one of these two would remain temporarily vacant until a special election is held in conjunction with the general election this November.
• That special election would be to fill the chairperson's seat on a more permanent basis.
• If Mendelson were to run in and win that election, BOEE would hold another special election in the new year to fill his vacant at-large seat.
• If Orange were to run in that election, he would have to leave the race he's currently in for the at-large seat. You can't run for two council seats at the same time. (While you can't run for two seats in the same election, a special election held at the same time as the general election could be considered a different election, so it's possible, but unlikely, that someone could run in two races at once.) The DC Democratic State Committee would get to select someone to take his line as the Democrat on the ballot for the at-large seat (somewhat similar to the way they selected Sekou Biddle to take Kwame Brown's at-large seat temporarily when he became council chairman).

If Vince Gray follows Kwame Brown in stepping down or being removed from office, the situation on the council becomes even more muddled.

• The interim chairperson would become the interim mayor.
• Another interim chairperson would have to be selected to run the council. Let's assume that the council selects Mendelson as the interim chairperson after Kwame Brown leaves office. That would make him the interim mayor, and would leave Vince Orange as the selection for interim council chairperson.
• BOEE would call for fall special elections for a new mayor and a new chairperson.
• The above caveats about the seats currently held by Mendelson and Orange would continue to apply (temporarily vacant, would need to be filled in a special election should one of them run for and win a higher office).
• It's safe to assume that current officeholders like Evans, Bowser, Wells, and others may run for one or both of these seats. Should Evans, Bowser, or others currently up for re-election choose to run for either of these seats, the Democratic committee for their respective wards would name someone to take their line on the ballot, as they couldn't run for two offices at once. Wells would not have to worry about that, since he's not currently up for re-election.

The potential for a confusing ongoing election season is about to increase greatly. I never would have guessed that all of this mess was possible just two short years ago.

Open letter to Ward 5 residents - Vote Kenyan McDuffie May 15

 Photo by BurgersSociety on Twitter

I'm going to keep this brief. The Ward 5 special election is on Tuesday. Early voting has started, and according to Mike DeBonis, the precincts that are voting in the largest numbers are mostly in the northern part of Ward 5, which many consider to be Frank Wilds country.

Most think that the election is going to be a close one between Wilds, Delano Hunter, and Kenyan McDuffie. If it's not clear from the picture above, we are die-hard McDuffie supporters.

It's highly unlikely that anyone will emerge from the 12-candidate field with a majority of the votes. A few hundred votes could swing one candidate or another to victory, though. Turning out supporters is key, and we have been phone banking, going door-to-door, and will be working on election day at the polls for our preferred candidate.

The southern parts of the ward that border Ward 6 (Truxton Circle, Bloomingdale, Eckington, Ivy City, Trinidad, Arboretum, and Carver Langston) need to turn out and vote for someone who will have a good, strong working relationship with that ward and its councilmember, Tommy Wells. Cross-jurisdictional relationships are important, and Tommy knows that he and Kenyan will work together well on the council.

We strongly encourage you to vote, either today (Friday) or Saturday at the Turkey Thicket Recreation Center on Michigan Avenue in Brookland, or on Tuesday at your regular polling place throughout the ward. Please, get the neighbors who live on either side of you to vote as well. This is too important of an election to have our city's usual anemic 15% or less turnout.

Strange logic in the Current's endorsement

I've sung the praises of the Current Newspapers before. But last week's endorsement in the at-large council race was baffling, to say the least.

The editorial discussed five candidates for the office (Vincent Orange, Patrick Mara, Joshua Lopez, Sekou Biddle, and Bryan Weaver), and for the most part discussed the positives that they felt each brought to the table. Using a process-of-elimination-style rubric, they came to the decision that Bryan Weaver was the best candidate of the bunch...

...and then proceeded to endorse Sekou Biddle.

What would make them endorse a candidate they don't think is the best for the job?

The "logic" was that Bryan Weaver, though having the best grasp on the issues and being "the most knowledgeable challenger [they] have interviewed over the past 16 years," is not well known outside of his home neighborhood of Adams Morgan. Because of a higher profile, they endorsed Biddle. Not because of any belief that he'd actually be a better council member.

The Current distributes their papers in every neighborhood west of Rock Creek Park, as well as most areas west of Georgia Avenue east of Rock Creek Park. From Logan Circle, north to Shepherd Park, west to the Palisades, and back down to Georgetown and Foggy Bottom, the paper reaches many neighborhoods and many potential voters.

The Current's website claims a weekly delivery of 52,874 papers, and also claims that "over 95 percent of the adults who receive the Current on their doorsteps read it, one of the highest levels our circulation auditors have found in the entire country." If that's true, then upwards of 50,000 people read the editorial written last week. That would mean 50,000 people are now at least somewhat familiar with Bryan Weaver, and that's more than enough voters to win an the upcoming special election.

Of course, not everyone who read their endorsement will agree with it, and not all will even vote. But what is an endorsement if not a persuasive article? One can persuade without the object of the action being intimately familiar with the subject matter. In fact, a good persuasive argument would lay out facts for the uninitiated in such a way that they would feel both educated and convinced that the right conclusion has been reached by the one doing the persuading.

Either the Current's editorial board didn't really believe that Bryan Weaver is the best person for the job, or there is some other reason for making their choice. Claiming that he's not well enough known really isn't a sufficient excuse for declining to endorse. Part of the paper's job is to make the candidates known to the public.

Sekou Biddle's campaign has had a full-column advertisement opposite the paper's editorial for many weeks. As of the March 10th campaign finance filling, the Current had earned over $4,000 in advertising from the Biddle campaign. I'm not accusing the paper of a quid pro quo, but it's interesting that the they would sing the praises of one candidate, then turn and endorse the candidate whose campaign has spent more money than all others in their paper.